Rankings Watch: The numbers behind Sabalenka’s climb to the top

That looked unassailable, insurmountable, even … until, recently, when suddenly it didn’t. After winning the Dongfeng Voyah · Wuhan Open a week ago, Sabalenka crept to within 69 points of Swiatek.

“Yeah, that’s really tight ranking right now,” Sabalenka said afterward. “Really nice to see.”

This week, Sabalenka will enjoy the view even more now that she’s surpassed Swiatek again for that coveted No.1 ranking.

Neither player was in action last week, but with continuing year-end adjustments for falling short of certain tournament quotas, Sabalenka dropped fewer points than Swiatek. Sabalenka holds a 9,706-9,665 lead — a narrow 41-point margin.

Over the next two weeks, Sabalenka’s lead is likely to increase, giving her a significant edge toward retaining that No.1 ranking at the WTA Finals Riyadh presented by PIF. A year ago, Swiatek entered the year-end championship at No.2, won all five of her matches — including a semifinal victory over Sabalenka — to regain the top spot.

How did Sabalenka close the gap so quickly, essentially in a span of two months? With some brilliant play and some help from Swiatek.

Heading into the Cincinnati Open, Sabalenka was actually ranked No.3 behind Coco Gauff, and Swiatek was up 3,289 points. But even though Swiatek reached the semifinals, Sabalenka won the title and collected the 1,000 points that went with it. That cut Swiatek’s lead as they lined up for the US Open. Again, Swiatek produced a good result, reaching the quarterfinals, but Sabalenka again won the title. That sliced the margin to 2,169 points.

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Swiatek was the defending champion at the China Open but elected to skip the Asian swing while attending to a coaching change. So while 1,000 points came off Swiatek’s total, Sabalenka went to the quarters, picking up 215 points — leaving her down 1,069 points. Winning the title at Wuhan, beating No.4 Gauff in the semifinals and No.7 Zheng Qinwen in the final brought Sabalenka an additional 1,000 points.

Battle for No.1
WTA

And so, in a span of nine weeks, Sabalenka accumulated 4,000 points. By comparison, consider that only seven Hologic WTA Tour players have that many for the entire year.

Sabalenka has continually deflected No.1 questions when they’ve come up with increasing regularity.

“I’m not trying to focus on ranking, to be honest,” she said after the US Open. “Yeah, hopefully one day I’ll see myself on the top of the ranking.”

That day has come. Now, the leading headline going forward: Can she keep in Riyadh and become a year-end No.1 for the first time?

Daria Kasatkina, +2 to No.9: Kasatkina won her eighth career title (and second of 2024) at last week’s WTA 500 event in Ningbo. She returns to the Top 10 for the first time since July 2023.

Mirra Andreeva, +2 to No.17: Andreeva reached her second career final, and first at WTA 500 level, in Ningbo before being pipped by Kasatkina in a tense final. The 17-year-old rises to a new career high.

Karolina Muchova, +5 to No.25: Muchova’s run to the last four in Ningbo marked the fourth time in just eight tournaments this year that the Czech has reached the semifinals or better.

Clara Tauson, +11 to No.53: In Osaka, the 21-year-old Dane reached her first tour-level quarterfinal since Linz in February 2023. She returns to her highest ranking since August 2022.

Anna Blinkova, +14 to No.85: Last week, Blinkova played her first ITF-level event since April 2023 at the Macon ITF W100, and went all the way to the title.